油箱容积对液压系统油液污染度影响的分析研究

建立了液压系统油液污染度的数学模型，分析了油箱容积对液压系统油液污染度的影响程度，为液压系统油液污染控制理论的建立和完善提供了理论依据。     

时间成本视角下RCEP对中国的经济影响——基于GTAP模型的测算

作为潜在的最大自由贸易区以及中国应对TPP(trans-pacific partnership)的一项重要策略,RCEP(regional comprehensive economic partnership)谈判的迅速推进使其成为国际社会的热点议题,然而目前却鲜有研究在量化贸易便利性的情况下测算RCEP对中国的经济影响.本文利用改进的GTAP(global trade analysis project)模型,以时间成本量化贸易便利性,分别模拟了RCEP成员之间"关税削减"情景和"关税削减+时间成本削减"情景.发现关税削减只能使中国的GDP增长0.14%.然而,如果将时间成本的削减也纳入考虑,在"冰山效应"的拉动下,中国的GDP将增长1.41%,达到关税削减情景的10倍之多.此外,中国的消费、贸易及大部分行业的生产也都会因此受益.这说明贸易时间的减少将会给中国带来巨大经济效益,也说明忽视时间成本的定量研究严重地低估了贸易自由化潜在的正面影响.     

瞬态热传导方程的时空有限元法

基于Gurtin变分原理，推导了适用于热传导方程时空有限元法的泛函，并对空间域和时间域同时进行离散，建立了求解瞬态热传导方程的时空有限元模型。最后对二维热传导方程采用面向对象技术进行了编程计算。计算结果表明时空有限元法精度高而且稳定收敛，是一种有效的方法。     

微分代数系统的实时控制计算方法

提出微分代数系统的一个实时控制计算方法，进行误差估计，给出采样间隔与控制误差的关系。对于一个模型问题进行了稳定性分析，画出稳定区域，给出保证控制稳定的采样间隔的取值范围。     

A nonparametric method for asymmetrically extending signal extraction filters

Two important problems in the X‐11 seasonal adjustment methodology are the construction of standard errors and the handling of the boundaries. We adapt the ‘implied model approach’ of Kaiser and Maravall to achieve both objectives in a nonparametric fashion. The frequency response function of an X‐11 linear filter is used, together with the periodogram of the differenced data, to define spectral density estimates for signal and noise. These spectra are then used to define a matrix smoother, which in turn generates an estimate of the signal that is linear in the data. Estimates of the signal are provided at all time points in the sample, and the associated time‐varying signal extraction mean squared errors are a by‐product of the matrix smoother theory. After explaining our method, it is applied to popular nonparametric filters such as the Hodrick–Prescott (HP), the Henderson trend, and ideal low‐pass and band‐pass filters, as well as X‐11 seasonal adjustment, trend, and irregular filters. Finally, we illustrate the method on several time series and provide comparisons with X‐12‐ARIMA seasonal adjustments. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

《共产党宣言》中的自由思想解析

马克思本人经历了从革命民主主义到共产主义立场的转变，其自由观也实现了“消极自由”到“积极自由”的转变。《共产党宣言》中的“自由人联合体”集中表达了马克思、恩格斯关于“积极自由”的构想，同时其主体是“现实中的个人”，因而马克思主义“积极自由”观作为建立在历史唯物主义基础上的价值理想，由自由人联合体的物质基础、作为自由的实现方式的无产阶级工人运动以及自由时间为其提供可能性。     

Parallelization and Performance Optimization on Face Detection Algorithm with OpenCL: A Case Study

Face detect application has a real time need in nature. Although Viola-Jones algorithm can handle it elegantly, today’s bigger and bigger high quality images and videos still bring in the new challenge of real time needs. It is a good idea to parallel the Viola-Jones algorithm with OpenCL to achieve high performance across both AMD and NVidia GPU platforms without bringing up new algorithms. This paper presents the bottleneck of this application and discusses how to optimize the face detection step by step from a very nave implementation. Some brilliant tricks and methods like CPU execution time hidden, stubbles usage of local memory as high speed scratchpad and manual cache, and variable granularity were used to improve the performance. Those technologies result in 4-13 times speedup varying with the image size. Furthermore, those ideas may throw on some light on the way to parallel applications efficiently with OpenCL. Taking face detection as an example, this paper also summarizes some universal advice on how to optimize OpenCL program, trying to help other applications do better on GPU.     

保险赔付时间分布函数及其应用

本文根据近几年我国部分省市公开的保险理赔服务质量指标中的数据, 拟合保险理赔服务时间的分布函数, 讨论保险理赔时间分布函数的分布类型和特性, 在分布函数分布不确定的情况下估计其实用的界值. 并且将其性质应用到未决赔款准备金的计提方法中, 得到未决赔款准备金的分布函数和有效的界值. 在此研究基础上, 我们进一步通过几个实例, 验证保险理赔时间分布函数和界值的求解方法, 并应用其分布函数得到所需计提的未决赔款准备金的分布和界值情况.     

Forecasting high‐frequency financial data with the ARFIMA–ARCH model

Financial data series are often described as exhibiting two non‐standard time series features. First, variance often changes over time, with alternating phases of high and low volatility. Such behaviour is well captured by ARCH models. Second, long memory may cause a slower decay of the autocorrelation function than would be implied by ARMA models. Fractionally integrated models have been offered as explanations. Recently, the ARFIMA–ARCH model class has been suggested as a way of coping with both phenomena simultaneously. For estimation we implement the bias correction of Cox and Reid ( 1987 ). For daily data on the Swiss 1‐month Euromarket interest rate during the period 1986–1989, the ARFIMA–ARCH (5,d,2/4) model with non‐integer d is selected by AIC. Model‐based out‐of‐sample forecasts for the mean are better than predictions based on conditionally homoscedastic white noise only for longer horizons (τ > 40). Regarding volatility forecasts, however, the selected ARFIMA–ARCH models dominate. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于病人成本最小化的医院预约挂号研究

为了减少病人排队挂号的等待时间及优化医院自身资源的合理配置,近几年我国各大医院都先后开展预约挂号服务.然而,医院在开展预约挂号时面临的问题是:预约挂号为病人带来了多少好处和便捷,预约数量和病人总挂号成本存在什么样的关系,到底开放多少预约号最为合适?本文从病人的角度对上述问题进行了定量研究.论文将病人的挂号成本分为时间成本和费用成本两类,运用了排队论建立了预约量与病人总挂号成本的模型,得出了预约挂号的个体选择依据和系统选择依据,并从总挂号成本与预约量的关系中得到使所有病人总挂号成本最小的最优预约量.然后,进一步分析了最优预约量中各个参数的敏感性,以期为医院的预约挂号管理工作提供指导.